China needs more than rate cuts to boost economic growth

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China needs more than rate cuts to boost economic growth
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More fiscal support is needed, analysts said, after the PBOC surprised markets by announcing plans to cut a number of rates.

"We will need a major fiscal policy support to see higher CNY government bond yields," said Edmund Goh, head of China fixed income at abrdn.

"The most likely path to reflation, in our view, is through fiscal spending on housing, financed by the PBOC's balance sheet," he said, stressing that more fiscal support is needed, in addition to more efforts to bolster the housing market."We will need major fiscal policy support to see higher CNY government bond yields," said Edmund Goh, head of China fixed income at abrdn.

The trend has persisted, with the gap between the U.S. and Chinese yields widening even after the Fed shifted to an easing cycle last week. "If general budget revenue growth does not rebound significantly in the second half of the year, it may be necessary to increase the deficit and issue additional treasury bonds in a timely manner to fill the revenue gap," the CF40 research report said.

He pointed out that monetary easing still requires fiscal stimulus "to achieve the effect of expanding credit and transmitting money to the real economy."

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