Panjiva Research thinks U.S. oil exports will find a new home if China 'bans'. Meanwhile, Nomura sees a much weaker yuan.
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That may be a bit radical. China is a huge market. American companies love being there and those who are not there would love to sell to them. Even without tariffs, Beijing might request that national oil companies including Petrochina and Sinopec cut their purchases from the U.S. as part of a series of non-tariff barriers, says Chris Rogers, research analyst at Panjiva, the supply chain research unit of S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Panjiva data shows exports to China had already fallen by 49.2% year over year in the second quarter, accounting for just 6.8% of the total in the second quarter anyway. Worth noting, however, many analysts in the soy trade thought that the U.S. would simply divert soy tonnage over to Europe as Brazil used its European soy and sold it to China instead. That all depends on a number of factors, such as the type of soy — whether it is non-GMO matters for some markets in Europe — and timing. Brazil and U.S. crop cycles are opposite each other.
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