Beijing is piling military, economic and diplomatic pressure on Taiwan to achieve its long-term goal of 'One China.' But experts worry that if CCP leaders believe they have no hope of a peaceful 'reunification,' they may turn to more drastic measures.
Hong Kong/Taipei, Taiwan Taiwan's Defense Minister, former general Chiu Kuo-cheng, stood in front of the island's legislature last week and made a dire prediction -- by 2025, China will be able to mount a"full-scale" invasion of Taiwan.
The dramatic statement came after China sent its highest number of warplanes yet into the skies above waters southwest of the island. But despite the rhetoric and the military saber-rattling, analysts agree China is unlikely to invade Taiwan anytime soon, with one expert adding the chance of invasion in the next 12 months is"close to zero.
But Beijing's audience isn't only in Taiwan and the US -- it's also at home.By putting pressure on Taiwan, President Xi Jinping is trying to shore up support ahead of the 2022 Chinese Communist Party Congress. That's when Xi's second term ends, though it's almost certain he'll stay on as President.
Sung attributed the rise to Beijing's brutal treatment of Hong Kong, a major financial hub that was promised 50 years of semi-autonomous governance, only to have its civil liberties severely curtailed by Beijing after major pro-democracy protests in 2019. "In light of the Hong Kong crisis, I think the appeal of a peaceful unification under a 'One Country, Two Systems' scenario in Taiwan is very, very low," he said.
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