Chinese-linked factories in Myanmar have been torched. By backing the army, China risks its own interests
China’s leadership and Myanmar’s top brass possess similar authoritarian instincts, but it was not inevitable that they would arrive at an understanding. The “Sinophobic” army has long been suspicious of China, says Yun Sun of the Stimson Centre, a think-tank in Washington. During the decades of military rule, when Western sanctions choked the Burmese economy, the regime survived because of Chinese trade and investment. But the junta was wary of depending too heavily on its northern neighbour.
But Ms Suu Kyi is now under house arrest, and China is worried that the chaos in Myanmar will spill over the border, says Jason Tower of the United States Institute for Peace, an American-government think tank, also in Washington. Criminal syndicates are ramping up their activities in the lawless zones abutting Thailand and China. Refugees fleeing the violence are, despite border closures, trickling into China. Some carry covid-19.
China has bet that the Tatmadaw, as the army is known, will deliver on its promise to restore stability. True, the coup has provoked formerly quiescent rebel groups to take up arms once more. But the Tatmadaw, which has the ear of the Chinese government, argues that it has a good record of preventing the country from disintegrating. China suspects that the opposition—a grab-bag of ethnic rebels and deposed parliamentarians—is no match for the organised, disciplined military.
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