China will just about meet its economic growth target of around 5 percent for this year, the latest Bloomberg survey shows, although the ongoing property crisis is raising the risk of a miss. The economy is projected to expand 5 percent in 2023, according to the median estimate in a new Bloomberg survey of 78
China will just about meet its economic growth target of around 5 percent for this year, the latest Bloomberg survey shows, although the ongoing property crisis is raising the risk of a miss.
The economist survey coincides with new research from Bloomberg Economics that suggests the “around 5 percent” growth goal is still possible, though not a sure bet. They estimate the probability of an undershoot at 18 percent. Data from August signaled some of the drags on the economy may be bottoming out, with the drop in exports easing and official surveys of manufacturing activity edging closer to the line above which indicates expansion. Credit also grew more than expected, potentially suggesting some stability in household demand for mortgages as authorities work to bolster the real estate market.
The property crisis is by far China’s biggest challenge, according to a separate survey. Seventeen of the 21 economists polled by Bloomberg named “real estate” as the top issue. Three mentioned the economic slowdown, while the remaining respondent pointed to a confidence crisis in the nation.
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