China's exports of refined oil products could start 2023 with a drop of 40% in January from December's figure, as Lunar New Year travel demand boosts domestic consumption of transport fuels, trading sources and analysts said.
The fall in exports from China, which has the world's second-largest refining capacity after the United States, is expected to underpin Asian refiners' margins for transport fuels.
On Friday, China reported its December refined fuel exports, which also include marine fuel oil, at 7.7 million tonnes, the highest since April of 2020 and up a quarter from November, although 2022 annual exports remained 11% below 2021.Estimates for January exports of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel are between 3.8 million and 4.1 million tonnes, say Chinese consultancies Longzhong, JLC, and several trade sources.
"Wholesaler and retail prices, especially for gasoline, have increased since the start of the year," said one trading source based in China, speaking on condition of anonymity.
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