China first quarter GDP growth set to slow to 6.3 percent, more policy support needed

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China first quarter GDP growth set to slow to 6.3 percent, more policy support needed
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China is expected to report on Wednesday that economic growth slowed to its weak...

BEIJING - China is expected to report on Wednesday that economic growth slowed to its weakest pace in at least 27 years in the first quarter, as policymakers seek to head off a sharper slowdown that could stoke job losses.

“The data is likely to show the clearest evidence yet of economic recovery,” though questions remain over the strength of any rebound and how long it will last, analysts at Nomura said in a research note on Tuesday, reflecting high expectations in the market. That would mark a further loss of momentum from the previous quarter’s 6.4 percent, which was the weakest since the global financial crisis.

Prices for steel reinforcing bars used in construction shot to 7-1/2 year highs this week, while steel mills have ramped up output to nine-month highs as winter pollution restrictions are eased. But analysts do not expect a sharp rebound in China like recoveries in the past, which created a strong reflationary pulse worldwide, noting its latest stimulus measures have so far been relatively more restrained.Some China watchers have dialed back their expectations of further policy easing in light of better-than-expected March credit and export data, and improvements in factory surveys.

But the People’s Bank of China has so far refrained from cutting benchmark lending rates as it did in past downturns, suggesting policymakers are treading more carefully in pump-priming an economy that is laden with debt from past credit sprees.

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