China has driven coronavirus transmission down to nearly zero. Now, it's emerging from one of the largest lockdowns in human history — and watching how it navigates this may offer guidance to the rest of the world.
There are now so few coronavirus cases in China that some days authorities don't see any local transmission. China has gone from reporting thousands of cases a day in February to one or two a day now. Over the last week, officials with China's National Health Commission reported just 5 new domestic cases. The total of new cases was higher but almost all of them were imported cases in travelers who'd recently returned from abroad.
"Areas where the outbreak was less had movement restrictions removed sooner," she says."But that didn't mean completely. It meant first they started major factories and started letting those people who work there go back to work so that they could restart their industries." "One of the things that China is doing is while it is relaxing social distancing measures, it's not removing them entirely," Ainslie says."And it's not removing them haphazardly."In several provinces where reported cases have gotten down to zero or close to zero for some period of time, they've seen case numbers rebound. But those upticks have primarily been driven by travelers arriving from Europe.
"With a lot of testing capacity, they were able to bring down the numbers of infections quickly," Cowling says."I think more quickly than we will find case numbers decline in New York or northern Italy or Spain or France. And that's because in China, the lockdown was a more extreme version of a lockdown. It was a total lockdown.""In addition to the lockdown, there was also heavy use of testing, isolation and quarantine," Cowling says.
"We're going to see within a month or two whether it's possible to get back to relatively normal social mixing and just be able to rely on test testing, tracking, isolating, quarantine" to keep the virus at an extremely low level in China, he says.
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