China is expected to report a sharp deterioration in economic activity in March as COVID-19 outbreaks and lockdowns hit consumers and factories, although first-quarter growth may have perked up due to a strong start early in the year.
Data on Monday is expected to show gross domestic product grew 4.4 in January-March from a year earlier, a Reuters poll showed, outpacing the fourth-quarter's 4.0% pace due to a surprisingly solid start in the first two months.
The government is due to release the Q1 and March figures on Monday at 0200 GMT, with investor speculation mounting over whether there will be more moves to stimulate the economy. But Beijing's strict zero tolerance policy on COVID-19 is taking an increasing toll on the world's second-largest economy, and is starting to disrupt supply chains globally ranging from cars to iPhones."In the run-up to the Party Congress, we think the central bank will prioritise growth, especially as the COVID battle drags on and housing markets fail to rebound," analysts at Barclays said in a note.
The Reuters poll forecast China's growth to slow to 5.0% in 2022, suggesting the government faces an uphill battle in hitting this year's target of around 5.5%.Barclays estimates that the second-quarter GDP growth could dip to 3%, dragging 2022 growth to 4.2%, if Shanghai's extended lockdown were to last for one month and partial lockdowns in the rest of the country remained in place for two months.
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