China’s fertility rate is already among the world’s lowest. It is also well below the level necessary to keep a population from declining over time; officials fear that economic growth would fall with it
FOR A GENERATION, China’s government had persuaded its married couples that “one child is enough”. Then, in 2016, it allowed parents to give birth to a second. Now they may at last have a third. On May 31st, at a meeting of the ruling Politburo led by Xi Jinping, the country’s most senior officials decreed that a further relaxation of birth-control regulations would help China to fulfil its goal of “actively coping with an ageing population”.
No indication was given of when the three-child policy would take effect. But reactions to the announcement on social media hardly brimmed with enthusiasm. “Do they not yet know that most young people are exhausted just supporting themselves?" commented one netizen on Weibo, a Twitter-like site. “This policy is totally out of touch with the people,” wrote another. An online poll by Xinhua, a state news agency which broke the news, asked if people would consider having three children.
Why not discard them now? At 1.3 children per woman, China’s total fertility rate is already among the world’s lowest. It is also well below the 2.1 necessary to keep a population from falling over time. Officials have made clear their fears that economic growth will fall with it. In 2012, after expanding for 50 years, China’s labour pool began to shrink. Officials expect the total population to peak in the next few years, almost a decade sooner than some government advisers had predicted.
Many parents had grown used to decades of one-child rhetoric. They often feel—in cities as well as in villages—that a family’s resources are best devoted to one child, to ensure she has opportunities that her parents did not. As more women pursue careers, many are delaying marriage and having babies. The high cost of housing and education, as well as the crushingly long work hours common in many companies, deter young couples from having any more than one child, or reproducing at all.
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