We predict a peak bloom between April 1 and 5, which is near the long-term average.
The cherry blossoms will be at peak bloom at the Tidal Basin between April 1 and 5. By Jason Samenow Jason Samenow Editor and writer covering weather and climate Email Bio Follow March 5 at 3:14 PM March has felt more like January, and spring seems distant. But our average high temperature continues to tick upward through the 50s, and before long, the new season will awaken. As such, it’s time for our annual cherry blossom peak bloom forecast.
The National Park Service announced Tuesday that the blossoms reached the first stage in their bloom cycle as green buds emerged. The average date that green buds appear is March 5 - so this is right on time. Blossoms start to appear on trees several days before the peak bloom date and, weather-permitting, can remain for a week or so after. But in some years, petals have fallen off sooner because of wind, rain or frost.
This graph shows the warmer it is in March compared with normal in Washington, the earlier cherry blossoms tend to bloom. We’re expecting March temperatures to be near to slightly warmer than normal. This, by itself, might suggest a peak bloom date a little on the early side, in the last few days of March.
Risks to the forecast An excess of cold and cloudy days and freezing nights, more than we’re predicting, could push the peak bloom date into the second week of April. How have our forecasts done historically? This is the eighth year we have issued a cherry blossom peak bloom forecast. We have had reasonably good forecasts — hitting the peak bloom within our predicted window in four of seven tries .
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