The zone from Dallas to Milwaukee — affecting nearly 65 million people — will deal with a heightened storm threat into Tuesday night.
A zone of low pressure over Colorado will intensify Tuesday beneath a pocket of high-altitude cold air, low pressure and spin nestled within a dip in the jet stream. That low will work northeast toward Iowa, eventually slipping into Michigan and then Quebec.
On the backside of that low, cool, crisp and dry Canadian air will cascade southward. The clash of the two air masses along the dividing boundaries, known as a cold front and a dryline, will trigger storms. If those storms tower high enough into the atmosphere, as is predicted, they’ll begin to feel strong jet-stream winds aloft. That will induce a change of wind speed and direction with height known as wind shear, which will foster rotation.
A source of uncertainty in Iowa and Illinois in particular is where exactly the warm front becomes established. It will be draped west to east, but it’s unclear how far north it will manage to surge. The capping issues may delay the onset of supercell development until after dark, which is concerning because of the added danger of nighttime storms. After any initial storms fire, a more complete line of thunderstorms will probably blossom along the cold front and march east throughout the night.
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