MANILA: The Philippines is poised for a U-shaped economic recovery in 2021 after a likely recession this year as the pandemic halted most of the economy since mid-March, central bank Governor Benjamin Diokno said.
MANILA: The Philippines is poised for a U-shaped economic recovery in 2021 after a likely recession this year as the pandemic halted most of the economy since mid-March, central bank Governor Benjamin Diokno said.
"The strong recovery is based on the assumption that the pandemic is contained in the second half of 2020.”Any recession caused by the lockdowns, compounded by disruptions to global supply chains, would be the first since 1998. The government extended for a second time the restrictions originally set to last about a month in major economic centres.
"The economy could slow down in the first quarter this year and contract in the second and third quarters, before gradually recovering in the fourth. Diokno also said that the average inflation forecast of 2.45% for 2021 is slightly higher than the previous prediction due to the projected strong recovery in domestic activity and higher liquidity growthFiscal stimulus will counter the pandemic and an increase in the deficit-to-GDP ratio from 3.2% to 5.3% will drive the debt-to-GDP ratio from 40.5% in 2019 to 47%, which is"modest by international standards”.
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