The Cleveland Cavaliers host the Boston Celtics in a crucial Eastern Conference matchup. We break down why betting on Donovan Mitchell's Over and the Cavaliers' spread is a good value play.
Donovan Mitchell has consistently outplayed the Celtics since joining the Cavaliers, and we've found a strong value bet on one of his combination prop bets for tonight's matchup. The top two seeds in the Eastern Conference clash on Tuesday, February 4th, as the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics face off for the third time this season. The home team has won each of the first two games, both decided by four points or fewer.
We'll delve into why you should bet the Over on each superstar's combined prop bets and why backing the home team to cover the spread in this 7:30 p.m. tip-off on TNT is a wise move. Mitchell has been exceptional against Boston in the 2022-23 season, averaging 35 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 4.1 assists in eight regular-season meetings. This marks his highest scoring average against a single team since arriving in Cleveland, and the rebounding average is second-highest. Mitchell has cleared the Over in all eight matchups with Boston, and we anticipate this streak extending to nine tonight. While Mitchell's overall counting stats are lower than usual this season, he's still averaging 32.7 PRA, just shy of tonight's modest 33.5 PRA line. He recorded a 12/6/6 line in 24 minutes during Sunday's blowout win over Dallas, but he's expected to play north of 30 minutes in a more competitive game tonight. Mitchell has exceeded this line in four of his last five games that were decided by 10 points or fewer. In the eight games prior to Sunday's blowout, Mitchell averaged 38.9 PRA and cleared the Over five times. He's cashed this prop in less than half of his appearances this season, doing so in 21 of 47 contests, but considering his impressive performance over the last three weeks and his excellent history against Boston, we're excited to take the Over at such a low total. Mitchell has performed better against Eastern Conference opponents this season, averaging 33.7 PRA in 30 contests and clearing the Over 12 times. Tonight's matchup should be close and high-scoring, with a spread of just two points and a healthy 236 implied total. We're confident in backing Mitchell's mispriced line. He's cooked Boston in eight straight games, and there's no reason to expect the kitchen to be closed in Cleveland tonight.Jason Tatum has also been a force against the Cavaliers this season, stuffing the stat sheet in two matchups with the Cavs this season, averaging 33 points, 10 rebounds, and 5.5 assists. In eight matchups last season — including the playoffs — he averaged a 26.5/10.8/5.1 line. Tatum has cleared the Over in both matchups with Cleveland this season and in eight of his last 10 overall. He's hit the Over on this line in back-to-back games, and we expect him to remain productive on the road. Cleveland boasts the best record in the NBA at 40-9, the best home record at 24-3, and the best against-the-spread record at 33-16. Boston isn't far behind in the win column at 35-15, but the Celtics are just 19-30-1 ATS, the third-worst in the NBA. The home team has won each of the last three matchups between these teams, and we anticipate this trend continuing tonight in a matchup that's essentially a pick 'em.
NBA Betting Donovan Mitchell Boston Celtics Cleveland Cavaliers Spread Over Jason Tatum Eastern Conference
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