Before the Celtics and Heat tip off, MichaelVPina ponders key questions that could decide the Eastern Conference Finals
The Heat and Celtics finished the regular season as the Eastern Conference’s top two seeds. When they face off it’ll be like they’re looking in the mirror. Both are mentally and physically tough, with malleable, talented, egoless rosters that are far deeper than most realize.
It feels right for them to meet in the conference finals, a rematch two years removed from their margin-free, six-game battle inside the bubble. As two of the past decade’s most prideful organizations , how their defenses deal with each other’s best player may very well decide who advances to the Finals. Here are a couple key questions to ponder before Game 1 tips off tonight. Each will be relevant all series long.with a 31.3 PER that’s second only to Nikola Jokic . He’s averaging 28.7 points with a 61.8 true shooting percentage. To boot: 54 assists, 17 turnovers and 21 steals. It’s natural to compare this stretch to what Butler did in the bubble, but that feels trite. This is merely the late-stage oeuvre of a first-ballot Hall of Famer whose work ethic and focus are pretty much second to none. Still, for Butler to see his best basketball a few months shy of his 33rd birthday, after spending 5.5 seasons under Tom Thibodeau, burning the candle at both ends with an intensity few are able to reach, let alone sustain, is remarkable. Over the past few weeks, he’s found another level. Some of that is thanks to his startling predilection for the three-ball and some is because of a few favorable matchups. Both the Hawks and Sixers were short on stout, long wings who could keep Butler from getting pretty much any shot he wanted. Hawks forward De’Andre Hunter was a worthy obstacle as his primary defender in the first round, but without a healthy Clint Capela or John Collins along the backline, Butler feasted in the paint, . He hunted Trae Young, and with Bogdan Bogdanovic as Atlanta’s only option whenever Hunter found himself in foul trouble, Atlanta had no backup plan.on Butler and then tried out James Harden . Neither was appropriate. Without Joel Embiid as his Defensive Player of the Year-caliber self, Butler’s pick and rolls with Bam Adebayo were a bucket pretty much whenever the Heat wanted/needed one—especially when opponents switched. Life will be different against the best defense in the league, with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Grant Williams and Marcus Smart all built to wrestle Butler in the halfcourt. Boston made the immortal Kevin Durant look meek before it held Giannis Antetokounmpo to 45.7% shooting and instigated his 36 turnovers. If they can make Butler’s life a nightmare as they did those two, they should win. The Heat are at their best when the rock hops from side to side and their slew of dynamic ball-handlers is putting opponents in rotation. They cut and screen with precision, making it so hard to rest on the weakside. But Boston will take that stuff away. They switch on and off the ball better than any other unit, always with five defenders who can stay between their man and the basket. Butler is ruggedly direct with his scoring and finished this season as the sixth-most efficient isolation player in the league . Only Steph Curry, Karl-Anthony Towns, DeMar DeRozan, Luka Dončić and Jrue Holiday finished ahead of him, according to Synergy Sports. Boston has the option of switching most ball screens, steadying the game’s pace and mucking Miami’s inconsistent half-court offense up by inducing as much isolation basketball as it can. Brown has been Butler’s primary defender when these two teams have met over the past few years, but Grant Williams should see a ton of time on him right now, possibly from the jump. Williams can not only keep Butler on the perimeter without fouling, but switch onto Bam Adebayo without offering Miami’s center any advantage. Of course, that switch lets Butler go at whoever was on Adebayo—be it Al Horford,Rob Williams III or Daniel Theis—which is why the Celtics mostly guarded that action in a drop during the regular season, with help defenders shrinking the floor to force a kick-out pass or pull-up two. If the Celtics can guard it with three defenders and not be punished, Miami is in trouble. But switching Horford onto Butler isn’t a crisis. And the Celtics can also stick Tatum, Brown or even Smart on Adebayo when they’re small, which eliminates that pick-and-roll combination but may open other doors for Miami’s offense.
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