The U.S. and global economy should avoid a recession in 2020, with a combination of strong retail sales, potential monetary policy easing and service sector robustness expected to mitigate slowing growth, according to several leading economists.
However, latest data showed that factory output fell by 0.4% in July, while manufacturing output has now contracted in five of the past seven months, mirroring a broader slowdown worldwide led by China and Germany.
He added that the "valuation gap between equities and relatively expensive bonds continues to increase," but advocated a more cautious short-term approach given the downside risks to growth. While there is no clear indication of a turnaround here, the services sector remains robust, offsetting the impact of dwindling industrial performance.
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