The university has categorically denied allegations that it used a biased methodology to decide who would be in the debate.
From left to right, Tony Thurmond, Antonio Villaraigosa and Betty Yee participate in the California gubernatorial candidate debate Tuesday, Feb. 3, 2026, in San Francisco. — following mounting criticism over the exclusion of four candidates of color — could reshape the race, boosting some candidates while dealing a blow to others, political experts say.
The cancellation came after nine state lawmakers — including Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas and Senate President Pro Tempore Monique Limón — urged USC to open the debate to all leading candidates. Debate organizers had faced accusations from candidates and state lawmakers that they used a biased methodology that led to only six of the 10 leading candidates being invited to participate. The controversy centered on the inclusion of San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, a Democrat who raised more than $7 million in his first week in the race but hassince announcing his candidacy in January. USC and its Dornsife Center for the Political Future denied manipulating the formula to benefit Mahan, and the mayor said the four excluded candidates should have been invited. The excluded candidates — former U.S. Health Secretary Xavier Becerra, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, former state Controller Betty Yee and state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond — praised the decision to cancel the debate. On Friday afternoon, they had called on the invited candidates to withdraw. Melissa Michelson, a political science professor at Menlo College, said the cancellation could benefit Becerra, whose polling numbers have often surpassed Mahan’s, though Yee and Villaraigosa could also see gains.in their formula. The poll, which was conducted Feb. 3-11, showed Becerra, Yee and Villaraigosa with more support than Mahan. “I think it gives all of them an opportunity to reach out to folks and say, ‘look how they’re trying to ice me out — what are they afraid of?’” Michelson said, noting Becerra would likely see the biggest boost given his standing in the polls. The formula used to determine debate participants was developed by USC Professor Christian Grose and the USC Democracy and Fair Elections Lab. In addition to polling, candidates were evaluated on fundraising, calculated by dividing total funds raised by the number of days since entering the race. Polling was weighted more heavily. USC said the formula produced a viability score with a “clear separation” between the top six candidates and the rest of the field. In a statement released this week, the university said it and KABC “have not been able to reach an agreement on expanding the number of candidates.” “USC vigorously defends the independence, objectivity and integrity of USC Professor Christian Grose, whose data-driven candidate viability formula is based on extensive research and enjoys broad academic support,” the university said. “At the same time, we recognize that concerns about the selection criteria for tomorrow’s gubernatorial debate have created a significant distraction from the issues that matter to voters.” The debate, which would have aired Tuesday night on ABC7, was only the second major televised forum in the race to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom. Steven Maviglio, a Democratic political consultant, said that while a midweek debate in March likely wouldn’t have drawn large ratings, it still offered a valuable opportunity for candidates to introduce themselves and potentially break through. “I think it hurts everybody except Tom Steyer because nobody is able to get on television because of its cost except for the billionaire,” Maviglio said. “It’s an opportunity lost for other candidates to be on the most popular medium to get political news.” Steyer, a billionaire philanthropist, was one of the six candidates invited to the USC debate, alongside Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, former Fox News host Steve Hilton, former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, East Bay Rep. Eric Swalwell and Mahan. Steyer, who had been critical of the selection methodology, said he would instead host a town hall in Los Angeles and invited all candidates to participate. Mahan said he would. But Steyer’s team later called it off, saying none of the four candidates who were excluded from the canceled Tuesday debate had decided to participate. The next televised debate is scheduled for April 22, and Mahan — the race’s latest entrant — is not among the five candidates invited. “It’s a blow to efforts to be more visible statewide especially in that market in Los Angeles where TV is almost prohibitively expensive for all but one candidate in the race so far,” Maviglio said. “It would have elevated his status slightly.”“He was the additional white candidate who was going to be included, making it an all white debate,” she said. “For folks who are just now getting acquainted with the candidates, I think this hurts Mahan’s ability to attract them because it makes them think ‘was the fix in for this guy?’” Mahan wrote on social media that “California isn’t working for too many working people — the answer isn’t to cancel debates, it’s to hear all voices.” “The outcry over this debate is deafening and includes legal demands from excluded candidates’ attorneys, public calls by elected leaders across the state, concerns from the included candidates’ own campaigns and growing alarm from California voters,” lawmakers wrote in their letter. “Instead of responding to these valid concerns by expanding the debate, USC has doubled down.” Homicide victim had been warned to steer clear of Norteño turf, but teenaged killer caught him there, feds sayExclusive: Randy Bennett explains why he’s leaving Saint Mary’s for Arizona StateMurder trial starts over 1 a.m. shooting outside Pleasant Hill barCalifornia governor debate draws backlash over who made the stage‘Is my mom OK?’: San Mateo man sentenced to 35 years for killing Hayward ex-girlfriend
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