ANALYSIS: Can you pick the Brownlow Medal winner without knowing the first thing about Aussie rules?
In the last 29 seasons only one player has won the Brownlow Medal playing in any other position: Adam Goodes — in a three-way tie alongside Nathan Buckley and Mark Ricciuto — in 2003 when he played predominately in the ruck.Is picking the Brownlow medallist simply a matter of finding the players with the most stats and crunching an algorithm?
Nguyen is pursing a master of science degree in applied statistics and, in his spare time, blogs — and solves problems — in sports analytics. From there he set about programming a prediction model based on all the main stats in an AFL game — kicks, marks, handballs, tackles etc. Only three players per match out of a possible 46 can be awarded votes, and there's only six votes in total. It means that every time Oliver is awarded three votes, that takes away the possibility of Petracca getting maximum votes.
"You might just model it from a statistical point of view and find that highest [disposal-winning] players on the field in terms of touches are not necessarily the best," he said."Our big thing is that we try and collate as many media votes as possible, almost like using wisdom of the crowds, but also not relying upon it solely because we don't want the biases of the media or umpires," Butyn said.
"I would say that you're on a back foot, because of how important those media votes are to the model in my experimenting," Butyn said.
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