Can Anybody Stop Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican Primary?

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Can Anybody Stop Donald Trump in the 2024 Republican Primary?
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At least in theory, there is plenty of time for the dynamics of the primary to shift, JohnCassity writes. But is that likely?

, roughly half of independents and close to a quarter of Republicans said that the classified-documents charges made them less likely to vote for Trump in 2024.

Trump is clearly finding it more difficult to dismiss Smith’s indictment than Bragg’s. And, Ayres pointed out, he may well be hit later this summer with more serious charges, in Georgia, where Fani Willis, the Fulton County district attorney, is investigating whether the then President illegally interfered in the 2020 election.

Ayres’s gut instinct was that the national G.O.P. polls won’t shift very much before the actual primaries begin, but he also said that they could shift dramatically if another candidate manages to defeat Trump in Iowa or New Hampshire. In both of these states, Trump is currently well ahead in the polls, but his lead isn’t as big as it is in the national polls. Ayres said there is still a possibility that DeSantis or one of the lower-polling Republicans could catch fire.

The veteran strategist also raised the possibility that in 2024, unlike in 2016, many of the secondary G.O.P. candidates could drop out of the race early in the primary season, and that this could conceivably enable one of the surviving candidates to unify the anti-Trump vote.

For an effective anti-Trump move to take place, of course, the G.O.P. would have to display the sort of coördination that the moderate wing of the Democratic Party showed in 2020 after Bernie Sanders finished first in the New Hampshire primary. On that occasion, Congressman James Clyburn threw his support behind Joe Biden in South Carolina, and two of the moderate candidates—Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar—dropped out and endorsed Biden.

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