The Cleveland Browns hold the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, a position that could lead to a franchise-altering selection. General Manager Andrew Berry has the opportunity to replicate the success the Washington Commanders experienced last season after drafting Jayden Daniels, who led them to the playoffs. However, history suggests that finding a franchise quarterback through the draft is a challenging feat. The article explores the potential pitfalls of drafting a quarterback in a thin class, highlighting the high failure rate and urging caution against succumbing to hype.
Cleveland Browns general manager Andrew Berry is one move away from fixing this mess. Don’t see it? Just watch the Washington Commanders play in Detroit during Round 2 of the NFL playoffs this weekend. They finished 4-13 last season and earned the second overall pick. Then Washington drafted quarterback Jayden Daniels and — Boom. Golden ticket. Playoff berth, playoff win, possibilities endless. All Berry has to do is repeat the process, and he’s already done half the work.
Cleveland (3-14) secured the second pick in April’s draft with a six-game losing streak to end its 2024 season. Just one move left: Find the gold. “I think, one of the beauties of the NFL, I guess maybe a parallel, you think about the team that was holding the two-pick last year ... we’ll see Washington play in the playoffs this year,” Berry said last week. “So, you can never really put necessarily a time frame on it with player movement and how things change in the NFL. It’s hard to have a crystal ball, but we really will be focused on making the decisions that we think cannot just allow us to have a 10 or 11-win blip, but really allow us to stay there. And so, that will be balancing both the short term and long term.” Likeable Irish? Don’t let Ohio State football alum Marcus Freeman distract you from Notre Dame’s true identity — Jimmy Watkins We interrupt this Browns fever dream to bring you a cold, harsh dose of reality: The NFL Draft produces more flops than first-round saviors, and it almost never produces a player like Daniels. According to Stathead, only nine passers in league history have made the Pro Bowl and the playoffs during their first NFL season. Only three of those nine (Daniels, Russell Wilson, C.J. Stroud) won a playoff game as rookies. And only two (Daniels and Stroud) did so after landing with a bottom-five team. In other words, the Commanders and Texans just bucked history in consecutive seasons. The Browns, strapped with mammoth Deshaun Watson cap hits over the next two seasons, are incentivized to aim for a three-peat. But whether Berry prefers Miami quarterback Cam Ward or Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders, the draftniks suggest he’d be reaching to draft them second overall. ESPN’s rankings 16 players ahead of Ward and 41 (!) ahead of Sanders. ESPN says neither is a top eight prospect (though both are top 12). Why does it matter? Because in the search for a golden ticket, franchises often miss red flags. Back to the history books. Since 2000, eight drafts (comprised of 12 first-round picks) have featured two or fewer first-round quarterbacks selected. Only four of those 12 prospects — Chad Pennington, Michael Vick, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco — earned second contracts with the team who drafted them. And only two (Vick and Ryan) found success after joining a bottom-five team. If low hit rates don’t scare you, try the misses. We’re talking JaMarcus Russell (2007), Brady Quinn (2007), Sam Bradford (2010); Tim Tebow (2010), EJ Manuel (2013), Jameis Winston (2014); Marcus Mariota (2014), Kenny Pickett (2022), oh my. These quarterbacks boast two combined playoff wins, one Pro Bowl appearance (Winston) and zero 10-win seasons between them. Five of their eight general managers got fired before their rookie contracts expired. All eight franchises believed they had found a savior. So consider this fair warning to any Browns fan (or executive) prepared to fall in love at first film session. Sanders’ pocket poise, like Ward’s playmaking chops, will entice you. Washington’s playoff run offers hope to a three-win franchise. Berry could fix Cleveland’s mess with one draft pick. But only if he selects a player like Daniels, of which history counts so few. And in a thin quarterback class like this? Buyer beware. The next Russell or Bradford could be lurking on Cleveland’s draft board
NFL Draft Cleveland Browns Andrew Berry Quarterback Washington Commanders Jayden Daniels History Success Rate Failure Rate
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