We expect a combination of occurrences from 2018 and 2010 to lead to really scary looking numbers for Democrats.
Finally, the"blue wave" year of 2018 was imperceptible in California's June primary — but there's a pretty good explanation as to why. California's 2016 primary for congressional races coincided with the Democratic presidential primary, a bruising race between Clinton and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. The Republican primaries were already over by that point, as Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and former Ohio Gov. John Kasich had dropped out a few weeks before the race in California.
There were 4,915,447 votes cast for Democratic congressional candidates in the June 2016 primary, but that number fell to 4,189,103 for the June 2018 primary. The drop can easily be attributed to the absence of a presidential contest, and the lack of a meaningful shift in Democrat's direction can be explained by the fact that the baseline was already a Democrat-supercharged electorate.
For the June 2022 primary, we expect a combination of occurrences from 2018 and 2010 to lead to really scary looking numbers for Democrats, though those numbers might paint a more grim picture for the party than may be warranted. California's 2020 congressional primary also coincided with a Democratic presidential primary , which means that the baseline to compare 2022 against won't be a true"baseline.
When you combine these two effects, the swing to Republican candidates will likely be massive, possibly larger than the 2010 swing . Now, Democratic turnout could still be high. California Democrats could be motivated by news of Roe v. Wade getting overturned, and for the first time in a statewide primary election, every voter in the state was mailed a ballot. But there are more factors working against Democrats than there are factors working in their favor.
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