A new recall effort against California Governor Gavin Newsom has emerged, aiming to remove him from office before the end of his term. This is the eighth attempt since his 2018 election, but the organizers face a challenging task with the limited time left in Newsom's term and the need to gather a significant number of signatures.
Gov. Gavin Newsom has a little over two years remaining in his second term, during which he is ineligible to run for another. This distinguishes the current political landscape from the situation faced by organizers of the 2021 Newsom recall campaign, which failed to remove him by a substantial margin. The present recall effort, which must collect more than 1.
31 million valid voter signatures within 160 days of circulation starting on January 23, would guarantee a replacement governor only a year or less in office. Recognizing the limitations of such a short tenure, organizers of the current recall, the eighth attempt to oust Newsom since his 2018 election, remain undeterred. The 2021 recall remains the only effort to reach a vote thus far, with Newsom decisively defeating it by a 3 million vote margin, a stark contrast to the 2003 recall of former Gov. Gray Davis. Davis faced Arnold Schwarzenegger, a celebrated actor, in that vote, with only one significant Democrat among the potential replacements, then-Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante. Schwarzenegger's celebrity overshadowed Bustamante. In contrast, the 2021 recall did not feature any major celebrities among the potential Newsom replacements, with ultra-conservative pundit and talk show host Larry Elder securing 48 percent of the replacement votes. Undeterred, the current organizers aim to remove Newsom promptly and plan to criticize his alleged poor leadership before, during, and after the January wildfires in Los Angeles County. They also intend to prevent him from leveraging his current position to launch a 2028 presidential campaign. The organizers are optimistic about the need for approximately 400,000 fewer voter signatures than in 2021 due to the relatively low turnout in the 2022 general election. Newsom, as he has done with most recall efforts, is currently ignoring the current campaign. Organizers intend to hold him accountable for crime, homelessness, rising living costs, and alleged excessive business regulation. The actual stakes are significantly lower in this recall. If the petition circulation effort is successful, signatures will be submitted to county officials across the state by mid-summer. It will take approximately two months to verify the genuineness of the signatures, ensuring they meet the threshold for a recall vote. Assuming a similar timeline to 2021, when signature verification concluded on April 29 and the vote took place on September 14, the new vote would likely occur in late October or early November, with the intervening period allowing replacement candidates to register and campaign. The potential successor would have only about a year before the 2026 general election. This timeframe raises questions about whether such a governor could establish themselves as a credible incumbent. A successful recall would undoubtedly bar Newsom from pursuing a presidential run, which is speculated to be his plan after his term ends in early 2027. However, if Newsom successfully fends off the recall, he could enter the 2028 race with considerable momentum, potentially even as a national Democratic hero. Meanwhile, the recall campaign would need to raise at least $15 million to have a realistic chance of success. Should Newsom lose, he wouldn't be the first Californian whose political career was effectively ended by a crisis. Former Gov. Pat Brown faced such a situation when the Watts riot erupted in 1965 while he was vacationing in Greece. He was unable to respond promptly and lost his reelection bid the following year. Lieutenant Gov. Glenn Anderson, who was in charge during Brown's absence, was also criticized for his slow response to the riot and subsequently lost his reelection bid. Both Brown and Anderson were Democrats. Organizers of the current recall are encouraged by the success of recent recall campaigns that ousted San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin in 2022 and Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao last fall. Consequently, even though Newsom is unlikely to formally acknowledge this recall bid until and unless it qualifies for a vote, he would be wise to treat it seriously and potentially even leverage it to his advantage.
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