A swarm of moderately sized earthquakes has hit California near the San Andreas fault, increasing the likelihood that a bigger earthquake could strike within the next seven days.
and the Imperial fault, with further seismic activity and potentially larger earthquakes set to follow over the next week.that has been recorded in the swarm so far was a magnitude 4.9, which hit at 5.31 p.m. local time on September 30, but bigger quakes are a possibility.
"In a typical week, there is approximately a three in 10,000 chance of a magnitude 7+ earthquake in the vicinity of this swarm,' the U.S. Geological Survey said in a statement."During this earthquake swarm, the probability of larger earthquakes in this region is significantly greater than usual. Currently, the swarm is rapidly evolving, and we expect to update this forecast with more specific probability information as we collect more data.
The most likely scenario is that the rate of earthquakes in the swarm will decrease over the next seven days, though moderately sized as they may be—magnitude 4.5 to 5.4 is the estimation—they could still be significant enough to cause localised damage. The second most likely scenario is that a larger earthquake, between magnitude 5.5 and 6.9, could hit within the next seven days.
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