What the analytics predict for BYU vs. Texas Tech in this Week 11 college football game from an expert analytical model that projects scores.
Texas Tech and BYU square off in a battle of ranked Big 12 title contenders that will have a direct impact on how the conference championship and College Football Playoff race plays out. BYU is one of four teams in college football yet to lose a game this season, while Texas Tech has one loss and a little less margin for error when it comes to its postseason ambitions.
For that, we turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how BYU and Texas Tech compare in this Week 11 college football game, and use it to lock in our own projection.Despite the Cougars being undefeated, the model is taking the other side of this matchup, and by a considerable margin. SP+ predicts that Texas Tech will defeat BYU outright by a projected score of 31 to 22 and win by an expected margin of 9.7 points in the process.SP+ is a “tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.” How good is it this season? So far, the SP+ college football prediction model is 263-253 against the spread with a 55.8 win percentage. Last week, it was 29-23 in its picks against the spread.The betting market is siding very strongly with the Red Raiders at home against the Cougars. Texas Tech is a 10.5 point favorite against BYU, according to the updated game lines posted to FanDuel Sportsbook. FanDuel lists the total at 52.5 points for the matchup and set the moneyline odds for Texas Tech at -375 and for BYU at +300 to win outright.Texas Tech’s disruptive defense and home-field advantage give them an important edge, but BYU’s disciplined execution under freshman quarterback Bear Bachmeier and balanced offense keep them very much in the mix. Expect a fast start, physical play in the trenches, and late drama, but likely Tech escapes with a narrow win.James Parks is the founder and publisher of College Football HQ. He has covered football for a decade, previously managing several team sites and publishing national content for 247Sports.com for five years. His work has also been published on CBSSports.com. He founded College Football HQ in 2020, and the site joined the Sports Illustrated Fannation Network in 2022 and the On SI network in 2024.
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