Giannis Antetokounmpo will play for Milwaukee for the first time since Game 1, and bettors are lining up to back the Bucks. But D_Farmer's NBA betting picks believe this is just opening up a golden opportunity elsewhere.
by four points on Sunday morning all the way to -7.5 on Monday afternoon. Yes, he is a two-time MVP. Yes, he should be in the top three of MVP voting again this year. Yes, he won the NBA Finals with one of the most dominating performances in a clinching game ever.
But is he worth 3.5 points on the road? For that matter, some books even opened with the Bucks as just -3.5 favorites late Saturday. How much of this boost is tied to Giannis? The thought behind “buy on bad news, sell on good,” is that the public overreacts to big news items like this. The world hears Giannis is returning and rushes to bet the Bucks, even though the sportsbooks were already moving toward Milwaukee before Monday’s injury optimism. The early-morning line of -5.5 might have been the right midpoint for his return, but then the public kept playing it, and hence -7.5 can now be found at many books.
Expecting a Miami win tonight might be a bit ambitious — best found at +280 at BetMGM — but keeping this game within this inflated spread should be a reality. If nothing else, this is where the value is. Giannis should boost the number, but not by four points, not in the playoffs, and not on the road. When Milwaukee was favored by 5.5 points on Monday morning, that made sense. Now at 7.5, that’s just too much.
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