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Bitcoin price forecasts still favor lower macro lows as traders brace for US inflation data and renewed Japan-driven currency volatility.) starts the second week of February still on the defensive after last week’s sharp drawdown, with traders increasingly eyeing a deeper retracement toward $60,000 — and even $50,000 — before a durable macro bottom forms.
CPI week comes as markets lose faith in Fed rate cuts in March. US dollar strength begins to fade as analysts eye a potential rerun of 2021 for Bitcoin-dollar correlation.Bitcoin miners send large amounts to exchanges as the dust settles on the snap downside.Bitcoin continues to trade above $70,000 as the week gets underway, but traders are anything but bullish on the short-term BTC price outlook.covering lower time frames, trader CrypNuevo warned that the current relief may end up as a manipulative move to liquidate late short positions. “The intention to push price up first would be to hit the short liquidations that exist between $72k-$77k mainly. But this move is just a guess,” he wrote. “What we're really anticipating here is the long wick getting filled at least 50% of it in the next weekly candles.”CrypNuevo implied that the lows could see at least a partial retest in the short term. “It could be an immediate wick-fill. But in the case of having a move up first, then it could probably take around 5-8 weekly candles to get filled,” he forecast.on a broad consensus that price would make new macro lows in the future — and that these could take BTC/USD to $50,000 or lower.“After such a volatile few weeks, price will attempt to start ranging at some point. With this recent spike in volatility and big retrace yesterday, there's a good chance we are hitting that point about now,” he “Would expect volatility to slowly come off a bit again, a range to be formed and from there on out we can reassess and look for opportunities.”The macro focus is back on US inflation data this week as wild gyrations in precious metals settle. The January print of the Consumer Price Index , due Friday, forms the highlight and will follow various US employment data releases. Since announcing the new Chair of the Federal Reserve, President Donald Trump has failed to calm market nerves about future financial policy. His pick, Kevin Warsh, is thought to be notionally opposed to easing financial conditions — something that has Markets thus have little faith in interest rates going lower at the Fed’s next meeting in mid-March — even if Warsh is only due to take over in May.Commenting, analytics resource Mosaic Asset Company pointed to “stubborn” US inflation statistics as a reason for a more hawkish Fed — and associated market nerves. “The combination of stronger economic growth and stubbornly high core inflation might starting casting a doubt on the interest rate outlook across the yield curve,” it wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “ Mosaic said that difficult conditions for the Fed were a “major catalyst behind the selloff in growth and AI stocks this year.” “Rising rates makes the present value of future corporate profits worth less in today’s terms, while higher rates presents competition for investor capital as well,” it added. As the week began, meanwhile, gold returned to the $5,000 mark, while US stocks futures joined Bitcoin in a relief bounce off Friday’s lows. For both Bitcoin and the broader risk-asset market, US dollar strength is becoming an increasingly important potential volatility catalyst. The US dollar index , which enjoyed a relief rally following a trip to multiyear lows near 95.5 in late January, is failing to reclaim levels above 98.A strong dollar tends to result in pressure for Bitcoin, and while the correlation has undergone many changes in recent years, the long-term trend may provide bulls with aUS dollar index one-month chart. Source: Aksel Kibar/X Kibar eyed DXY possibly now breaking out of a ten-year trading channel to the downside, but said that more data would be necessary before this was confirmed.last week, Zeberg likened the current relationship between BTC and DXY to early 2021 — around ten months before BTC/USD saw the blow-off top in its last bull market.“Strong DXY is BEARISH for BTC - just not in the initial phase of the Bull. Likely because ROTATION into US Assets,” he wrote. “In 2021 - we had 12 weeks of BTC rally into the new DXY Bull. The rally gained 130% into the TOP for BTC. I see same development again! +100% gain in BTC - into its FINAL TOP.”For the short term, however, Bitcoin faces another macro hurdle: a new fiscal policy era in Japan. After the reelection of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Japanese stocks surged to record highs — and analysis now sees negative impacts for US investment vehicles and crypto. “The landslide victory of Sanae Takaichi marks Japan’s shift toward aggressive fiscal stimulus and tolerance for currency depreciation,” analyst XWIN Research Japan wrote in aBTC and US Index Tracker . Source: CryptoQuant XWIN referenced findings warning of “slowing inflows” into US equity exchange-traded funds , thanks to a weaker yen increasing the attractiveness of Japanese bonds.“In risk-off phases, BTC tends to correlate with U.S. equities, allowing equity-led de-risking to spill into crypto markets. This pressure does not reflect deterioration in Bitcoin’s on-chain fundamentals, but cross-asset risk management.”, crypto markets remain highly sensitive to Japan-related news, with one theory even attributing the yen carry trade to last week’s BTC price crash. “With the election out of the way, especially if Takaichi does well, the optics of Yen depreciation won’t matter nearly as much,” he predicted.Bitcoin miners see “exceptional” exchange inflows Bitcoin miners are busy adjusting to current reality after Bitcoin’s 15-month lows — but research warns that a sell-off risk remains.Miner inflows to exchanges reached their highest levels since 2024 in recent days, with Feb. 5 alone seeing total deposits of 24,000 BTC. Describing that tally as “exceptional,” CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain said that the market is undergoing a “redistribution phase.” “Notably, this rise in miner activity comes within a market environment characterized by clear volatility and reduced risk appetite among segments of traders, which could add an extra layer of short-term selling pressure,” a “However, these inflows do not necessarily indicate the start of a prolonged downtrend, but rather may represent a natural redistribution phase within the market cycle.”The indicator’s two moving averages of hash rate show no sign of forming a classic bullish cross, firmly invalidating its latest “buy” signal from early January.This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
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