Retail traders have recently begun increasing upside exposure in GBP/USD and GBP/JPY. From a contrarian standpoint, this could spell trouble for the British Pound in the sessions ahead. Get you market update from ddubrovskyFX here:
rallied, retail traders increased their downside exposure, perhaps hoping for a turn lower. This can be seen by looking at IG Client Sentiment , which tends to function as a contrarian indicator. Recently, investors have been starting to increase upside exposure. Could this be a sign of weakness to come for GBP?shows that only about 59% of retail traders are net-long GBP/USD. Since most traders are net-long, this suggests that prices may continue falling. Upside exposure has increased by 1.
With that in mind, the combination of current sentiment and recent changes offers a stronger bearish contrarian trading bias.GBP/USD faces the critical long-term falling trendline from the beginning of this year. That has been maintaining the broader downside focus. Meanwhile, near-term rising support from September seems to be offering an immediate upside bias. With that in mind, a breakout seems to be imminent. Clearing the 1.1639 – 1.1738 resistance zone opens the door to facing August highs.
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