Commodities Analysis by MarketPulse (Zain Vawda) covering: Brent Oil Futures. Read MarketPulse (Zain Vawda)'s latest article on Investing.com
Brent oil prices have recovered to $78.30 despite OPEC+ downgrading demand growth forecasts and falling Chinese imports.OPEC+ revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 downwards for the third time.
The data came as a surprise given the new refinery by Shandong Yulong Petrochemical started one of its two 200,000 barrels per day crude units in September. It may be that we only see the changes from next month onward, however, an uptick in domestic demand is sorely needed. Market participants will hope that the recent stimulus package may still lead to fruition and increase demand moving forward.OPEC+ Meanwhile downgraded its global demand growth for 2024 and 2025.
China was primarily responsible for the 2024 downgrade, with OPEC reducing its growth forecast for China to 580,000 bpd from 650,000 bpd. Although government stimulus measures are expected to bolster demand in the fourth quarter, OPEC noted that oil consumption is encountering challenges due to economic issues and a shift towards cleaner fuels.
A bearish close today would provide bears with some hope of further downside. However, as the geopolitical tensions rise in Israel and the Middle East, the risk of a spike in prices to beyond the 80-a-barrel mark continues to persist.
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