On Breakingviews: Putin’s gas assault is a survivable test of EU unity, writes gfhay
If Putin were to keep Nord Stream 1 shut, Europe’s ongoing gas drama would turn into a full-blown crisis, especially in Berlin. The pipeline, which flows directly from Russia under the Baltic Sea to the German coast, contributed 35% of Germany’s 1,774 terawatt-hours of gas supply in 2021, UBS analysts reckon. Add in Russian imports by other routes, and a complete shut-off could knock 63% off that total.
Putin has other ways to challenge European and Western unity. Citing Nord Stream 1’s technical issues, he could offer to provide cheap gas instead through Nord Stream 2, the mothballed sister pipeline that was near completion before the war. That would enrage the United States, which has imposed sanctions on the pipeline, and hawkish member states like Poland.
In a scenario where Putin does restore Nord Stream 1 gas flows at half their previous level, the 2023 hit to German GDP would be under 1%, UBS reckons. Even in the bank’s total shut-off scenario where that year’s contraction is 2.8%, that would be less than the 4.6% hit caused in 2020 by the pandemic, and the 6% slump for the EU as a whole.
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