(Reuters Breakingviews) - It has never been truer that the journey is the destination. Travelling has proven resilient after previous crises, which suggests that once a Covid-19 vaccine, treatment or other solution is found, antsy globetrotters will pack their Samsonites in nearly full force again. Notable changes are likely to be in health checks and corporate flyers.
Travellers in protective suits are seen at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport after the lockdown was lifted in Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province and China's epicentre of the novel coronavirus disease outbreak, April 10, 2020. REUTERS/Aly Song TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
There’s reason for concern. It took nearly two years for North American flight demand to return following the 9/11 attacks, according to Morgan Stanley research. Overnight stays abroad this year are expected to fall by 20% to 30% from 2019, according to the World Tourism Organization, which would amount to a loss of up to $450 billion in receipts. After the global financial crisis in 2009, the comparable decline was a mere 4%.
Costs will ultimately be on the rise, however. Airlines can expect lasting changes to their expense structures. Just as a single bomb threat forced passengers to remove their shoes before boarding, the virus is likely to usher in a mask-wearing era. Temperature checks, deeper cleaning of planes and new boarding protocols all will be more time-consuming and chew up money.
There is other mildly encouraging evidence for the industry even though Expedia and others have withdrawn financial forecasts and Delta Air Lines boss Ed Bastian expects a recovery to take two to three years. Domestic bookings for China’s largest online travel agency, Trip.com, are on a rapid rise.
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