From Breakingviews - How Modi can grab India’s geopolitical “moment”
India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi waves towards his supporters during a roadshow in Varanasi, India, April 25, 2019. REUTERS/Adnan Abidi TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY“India’s moment” - a time when the stars align to boost the country’s economy and standing in the world. But to make the most of the opportunities, the prime minister who is expected to run for a third term next year will have to avoid overconfidence.
It also has homegrown advantages. India has a fast-growing young workforce, while China's is shrinking and ageing. The digitalisation of its $3.5 trillion economy is “” in the words of the International Monetary Fund. Even past problems such as poor infrastructure, weak skills and power cuts are being addressed at varying speeds. As a result, India has tremendous potential to catch up on China whose economy is five times as big.
India can no longer rely on Russia as a strategic partner, not least because Moscow’s weapons have performed badly in Ukraine. What’s more, it won’t want to depend on Russia as the latter is increasingly in the pocket of China, which is India’s biggest threat. This puts the country in a Catch 22 situation: it probably can’t hold off China without support from the United States and other allies, says Happymon Jacob of the Council for Strategic and Defense Research, a think tank. But if New Delhi gets too close to Washington and military aid does not come fast enough, Beijing could ramp up its aggression.
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