We're at a point where the market needs to rally soon to interrupt the mechanistic selling spiral.
A man cleans up on the trading floor, following traders testing positive for Coronavirus disease , at the New York Stock Exchange in New York, U.S., March 19, 2020.The crash that no one called has investors calling back to earlier cataclysms, grasping for historical threads that can serve as a guide for what markets and the economy might be facing.
Investment-grade corporate-bond risk spreads have burst with record speed from historic lows to levels that roughly price in recessionary default rates. The number of daily S&P 500 index swings of 4% or more hit a post-World War II record. The loss in U.S market value in a month and a day is near $10 trillion.
Others cite the 1969 Hong Kong flu outbreak, seen as a trigger for a swift 36% decline in the S&P 500 from an all-time high ahead of a brief recession. The 2008 crisis echoes are loudest to many, both because the trauma remains fresh and because we're seeing some of the same clogs and ruptures impair the capital markets' circulatory system.
As for stocks, they remain comparatively easy to sell. There is an enormous financial, commercial and human-capital loss accumulating by the day in this economy. Prices of publicly traded equities and corporate bonds are the most immediate way such a loss can be registered.
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