Brazil wants all of the benefits and none of the costs from COP26
The country’s record on climate change is indeed dire. Since Mr Bolsonaro took office in 2019, the rate of deforestation is up by 45%. Brazil’s total greenhouse-gas emissions rose 9.5% last year, according to a study sponsored by the Climate Observatory, a network of 70s and think-tanks, even as emissions fell in the rest of the world.
Now, however, negotiators claim that Brazil’s commitments are “unconditional”. This softer stance may have to do with the absence of the strongest proponent of the “pay-up” strategy, the former environment minister Ricardo Salles, who resigned in June. Mr Cleaver has also signalled that Brazil might be willing to compromise on two thorny debates surrounding Article 6.
The second debate is about what happens when new carbon credits are sold by businesses in one country to businesses or governments in another. Brazil needs to make “corresponding adjustments” to its own mitigation tally in order to exclude these offsets. For the first time, Brazil has said that it would accept such adjustments—perhaps, some experts are speculating, in exchange for the acceptance of some Kyoto credits, maybe with certain criteria or during a transition period.
Mr Leite pledged that Brazil will end illegal deforestation by 2028. It is a worthy goal that seems, at present, utterly unattainable. The new programmes intended to help are rehashes of things that already existed; the Inter-ministerial Committee on Climate Change now has “and Green Growth” at the end. More promisingly, Brazil plans to hire 700 environmental field agents to replace the scores who quit during Mr Salles’s tenure.
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