The challenge is that no one has figured out how to turn a deteriorating battlefield situation into a decent peace.
Ukrainian servicemen ride atop a tank after returning from Russia near the Russian-Ukrainian border in Sumy region, Ukraine, Thursday, Aug. 15, 2024.The war in Ukraine is going badly for the good guys. Ukraine is slowly losing on the eastern front. Its forces are plagued by a dearth of manpower and ammunition. A summer incursion into Russia made headlines but didn’t change the overall trajectory of the fighting.
The strategy suits Trump’s tough-guy image. A cutoff of U.S. assistance would quickly bring Ukraine to its knees. Unfortunately, it’s less clear why the threat of more U.S. aid to Ukraine would frighten Putin, given that Trump has spent years complaining about how much the existing aid costs.One suspects Trump’s plan isn’t about securing a favorable peace, but about securing peace at any cost.
The issue here is the same contradiction that has plagued U.S. policy since February 2022. Washington wants Ukraine to win. But for obvious and understandable reasons — the pull of competing priorities in the Pacific, the fear of escalation with Russia — it also wants to limit U.S. involvement. Offering a cease-fire along the current front line would put the burden of continuing the war on Ukraine. It would divide NATO, pitting countries that quietly favor an ugly deal against those who worry it would embolden Moscow further. A cease-fire could lead to sanctions relief, or at least sanctions slippage. And, if Trump wins and the America First ethos prevails in Washington, the West might lose interest in Ukraine once the shooting stops.
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