The Boston Celtics are down 0-3 to the Miami Heat. Sports analytics totally missed this scenario. There are lessons in the 'bust' from weather forecasting.
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Williams #12 of the Boston Celtics during the fourth quarter in game two of the Eastern Conference Finals at TD Garden on May 19, 2023 in Boston, Massachusetts. My wife said to me the other day, “The Celtics broke AI.” At first, I had to think about what she meant. Since the start of the NBA playoffs, many experts, analytics predictions and betting outlets had the Boston Celtics as not only the favorite to win the Eastern Conference but also the NBA Championship outright.
Now let’s get back to the Celtics and Heat, but first, an overview of key steps in how weather forecasts are made:Quality control of those observations.Initialization of computer models with observations using the underlying physics and math understanding of the atmosphere and how it is expected to evolve.Analysis and interpretation based on historical information, analogues, and model output.
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