Disagreement over Brexit trade talks will likely come to a head Wednesday when Prime Minister Boris Johnson meets the European Commission chief.
The recently-appointed head of the EU's executive arm said in December she is "very worried" about the chances of a cliff-edge moment at the end of the transition period. If there is no trade agreement between the U.K. and the EU, businesses could find themselves trading on World Trade Organization terms – potentially meaning higher tariffs and barriers to commerce.
"I am sure that she will discuss with the prime minister how to try to overcome these challenges and make sure we can come out with a positive agreement at the end of the year," the Commission spokesperson also said Monday.Analysts will be monitoring Wednesday's meeting to understand when this next phase of negotiations might begin.
"There is no reason to assume that Brussels would row back on tough demands including questions of minimal regulatory compliance and fishing rights. No-deal risk therefore remains very real in 2020," research firm Teneo said in a note Monday. Some policymakers have warned that trade talks might be more complex than the divorce negotiations witnessed from 2017 to late 2019. Apart from new trading arrangements, negotiators will also have to reach agreements on security and data sharing; aviation standards; supplies of electricity and regulation of medicines.
"In public, the government will maintain its hard line on diverging from EU regulations, and rejecting Brussels' demand for a level playing field. In practice, Johnson will likely prove more pragmatic," Mujtaba Rahman, managing director at the research firm Eurasia, said in a note Monday.
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