A no-deal Brexit would damage the EU—albeit less than Britain
WHEN HE became prime minister, Boris Johnson insisted that he would not be a supplicant visiting continental capitals to plead over the terms of Brexit. Unless the European Union agreed in advance to ditch the Irish backstop from the current Brexit withdrawal agreement, he would not talk to his fellow leaders at all. Instead, Britain was ready to leave the EU on October 31st, with or without a deal.
Beforehand, Mr Johnson wrote to fellow European leaders to repeat that the backstop, intended to avert a hard border in Ireland in all circumstances by keeping the United Kingdom in a customs union with the EU, must go. He also insisted that, contrary to promises to adhere to many Brussels rules so as to preserve a level playing-field, Britain must have freedom to diverge from EU regulations.
The truth is that European leaders have every incentive to listen to and engage with Mr Johnson. They wish to avoid the no-deal Brexit that he is threatening on October 31st, as it would damage the EU, albeit less than Britain. But their bigger concern is to stand solidly behind the Irish prime minister, Leo Varadkar, who has staked his position on keeping the backstop as the only guarantee against any risk of a return to a hard border in Ireland.
When Mr Johnson duly fails in late September to produce a credible alternative, EU leaders will insist that it is up to the British government whether to accept the backstop in some form or to leave with no deal. Although many European leaders would like Brexit to be over, they will also make clear that they are willing to extend the deadline beyond October 31st if needs be.
They also have half an eye on the Westminster Parliament, which returns to work on September 3rd. They are keenly following discussions by MPs from all parties on how to thwart a no-deal Brexit, either by legislative means or by the nuclear option of a vote of no confidence in Mr Johnson’s government. The talk of giving him 30 days to come up with a solution may yet delay a vote of confidence.
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