Global investors are being paid less to be in India. That could change once these month-long elections end on May 19
Bharatiya Janata Party supporters wear masks of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, center and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, left, during an election rally in Prayagraj, India, Monday, April 29, 2019. India's GDP is growing faster than China's. It's not in the crossfire of any serious trade friction. And yet India is the big bore of the big four emerging markets.
Modi is expected to keep his job. Should his BJP lose the majority in Congress, then Indian National Congress politician Rahul Gandhi is the likely leader. Investors prefer Modi, but are not worried about a surprise Gandhi win as he is not considered to be anti-business or anti-markets. Investors believe the BJP will remain in control of the Congress, meaning Narendra Modi remains as Prime Minister. But they also think the BJP will shrink, making it a bit harder for Modi to govern.
Teresa Barger, chief executive officer and co-founder of Cartica Management LLC:"a little bit of a restrained Modi is fine for us, too." Photographer: Paul Miller/BloombergModi has also cleaned the crony capital lending practices at the state banks, which led to the likes of ex-billionaire Vijay Mallya bilking the system, and his workers, out of millions of dollars. Mallya, once a liquor baron, also owned the now defunct Kingfisher Airlines, named after his signature beer brand.
On the other hand, HDFC Bank's ADRs are up 13.16% year-to-date, beating the emerging market benchmark and serving as a testament to Modi's policies of getting the unbanked, banked. Early this year it looked like the BJP had the election in their pockets. Now it seems they will lose the outsized majority they gained in 2014 and will have to make a coalition government.
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