Warning comes after Treasury sell-off as Fed readies bumper rate rise
He said on Tuesday that he does not expect rates to “skyrocket higher” immediately, but that they could “chop” around before rising again.
“Rather than following a sound policy . . . we’ve decided we’re going to raise rates and shrink the balance sheet so the Fed will have inflation credibility,” he said. “My concern is as we roll over and we see inflation starting to slow, the Fed will . . . not recognise where the neutral rate is and we’ll ultimately have a collision.”
Tighter policy from the Fed could “induce a financial accident” and he pointed to a sell-off in the $46tn US stock market as a “likely place” for that to occur. “I don’t think they’re setting themselves up for a soft landing,” he said, adding: “There’s an inevitability to a recession,” with some European countries “sliding” towards one as well.
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