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unemployment ratereports, showing job growth closer to 25k a month. Since the pandemic, the BLS report and the ADP labor market reports have not been nearly as correlated as they were. While we hope the BLS report is correct and the labor market is improving, we are concerned that revisions to the BLS have been higher than normal, and January has many seasonal adjustments that can skew data.
That said, if the BLS report accurately reflects a pickup in the labor market, the reflation narrative may have some legs. There is one concerning data point in the BLS report worth noting. As we share below, courtesy of Ernie Tedeschi, the median duration of unemployment, as measured in weeks, has been rising and now sits at 11 weeks. Going back over 50 years, this is a relatively high value, suggesting the labor market is not as strong as the January BLS labor report indicates.The most recent data from John Burns Research shows that the price premium new homes typically command over re-sales no longer exists. Over the last ten years, as shown below, new home prices have been anywhere from 10-40% above resale prices. In October 2025, the median new single-family home sold for $392,300, down 3.3% from September, while the median existing-home price in December was $405,400. Builders are much more aggressive in selling new homes than homeowners. They are offering incentives like rate buydowns and price cuts to move inventory amid high mortgage rates and large inventories. Moreover, they have shifted to building smaller, lower-priced homes. It’s worth adding that apartment rents also eased to a four-year low of $1,353 in January 2026, thanks in part to surging multifamily supply. This makes renting more advantageous than buying and reduces demand for new and existing homes.Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes.and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website. It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
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