Fighting in dense urban areas would reduce Israel’s main military advantages, leading to high casualties and complicating the task of recovering hostages.
Any moment now, Israel is expected to launch a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip – its first in almost a decade.
John Blaxland, professor of international security and intelligence studies at the Australian National University, expects Israel to launch a “fairly methodical, expensive and time-consuming re-entry into Gaza that is likely to cost an enormous number of lives on both sides”.Rodger Shanahan, a Middle East expert at the Lowy Institute, says Israel will have three key goals for a ground attack:To punish Hamas for the weekend attacks.
“Fighting in built-up areas advantages the defender,” says Shanahan. “It negates some of the Israelis’ technological strengths: troops have to get out of their vehicles and clear the area building by building.” Despite Netanyahu’s hawkish persona, Blaxland notes that the Israeli prime minister has been reluctant to put Israeli troops in harm’s way throughout his career. Unlike the population in Gaza, many Israeli reservists and their families are used to relatively affluent and comfortable lives. The Israeli public is currently demanding payback for Hamas’ attacks, but Blaxland says high IDF deaths risk domestic political blowback.
While Hezbollah has already fired rockets into Israel this week, Shanahan says the militant group is unlikely to put troops on the ground. “They won’t die in a ditch for the Palestinians,” he says.“Experience warns that once these territories are entered, other than for a quick raid with a specific objective, it can be very hard to get out again and it is unlikely that much would be achieved,” Freedman notes.
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