Spurs-Thunder Game 7 betting card features San Antonio +3.5 as the top pick, citing superior net efficiency and Gilgeous-Alexander's shooting woes.
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Reggie Miller Sounds Ridiculous | Don't @ Me w/ Dan Dakich NBA legend Reggie Miller defends OKC Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander against "flopper" accusations, claiming the fan backlash is totally overblown by podcasters Despite getting to a Game 7, the 2026 Western Conference Finals between the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder haven't lived up to the While the winning team has alternated over the past four games, the margin has been at least 13 points. Plus, Oklahoma City's flopping has been the biggest storyline of the conference finals, which is a bummer for us die-hard NBA fans.is another thriller.
DraftKings is projecting a close one: Oklahoma City is -162 on the moneyline and -3.5 favorites, and the total is 212.5 as of Friday afternoon. Oklahoma City Thunder All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is being defended by San Antonio Spurs wing Stephon Castle in Game 6 of the 2026 Western Conference Finals at Frost Bank Center in Texas. That said, Game 7 can be fun regardless of the drama, as long as we win money.
With that in mind, here is my betting card for the Spurs-Thunder series finale Saturday. The Spurs are winning three of the"four factors" in the conference finals and have a higher net efficiency.
First, turnover differential is the only factor the Thunder are winning in this series. That's mostly due to Spurs PG De'Aaron Fox missing the first two games of the conference finals and Stephon Castle turning the ball over 20 times in Games 1 and 2. Since Fox returned in Game 3, San Antonio has more assists and fewer turnovers. Besides SGA getting to the foul line, the best part of OKC's offense is scoring off turnovers.
If they protect the ball, the Spurs will out-execute the Thunder in the half-court. Oklahoma City Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander drives to the paint vs. the San Antonio Spurs during Game 6 of the 2026 Western Conference Finals at Frost Bank Center in Texas. This leads to my second point: Gilgeous-Alexander can't get a quality look in this matchup. He is scoring just 24.3 points per game in this series, down from his 31.1 PPG regular-season average, on 37.9% shooting.
You cannot win the conference finals if your best player struggles this much. San Antonio is so long and athletic, and Victor Wembanyama is the best defensive basketball player ever. They are taking away Shai's mid-range game and contesting all of his jumpers.
Third, Holmgren has been a dud, and he looks scared out there. Chet has played the second-most minutes for the Thunder this series and has attempted the fourth-most field goals. They need Holmgren to step up with wing Jaylen Williams playing hurt, and he is playing soft. Fourth, and I hate talking about this, but the Thunder's brand of basketball sucks because they play for fouls instead of points.
Even though OKC flops and foul-baits nonstop, San Antonio has a higher free-throw margin because it's the bigger and more physical team. Oklahoma City is cooked if the refs don't fall for Gilgeous-Alexander throwing himself to the ground, Holmgren acting as if he got hit by a car, or forward Lu Dort exaggerating contact on every screen.
Perhaps the Spurs are a year or two too early, and Oklahoma City's bench steps up at home as it has for most of the NBA playoffs. However, San Antonio is the better basketball team with the best player in this series. Geoff Clark's analysis for the Over in the San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder Game 7 in the 2026 Western Conference Finals. Hartenstein has gone Over this number on his stat combo in three games this series.
But he was essentially benched in Game 1 after just 12:10 minutes, and he only played 16:05 minutes in Game 6 because Oklahoma City got crushed. Originally thought to be unplayable in this matchup, Hartenstein is getting more run because he is physical, and OKC needs someone to battle with Wembanyama in the paint. Hartenstein also has a floater he has been making overFurthermore, Hartenstein had at least 20 points, rebounds and assists in three regular-season games vs. San Antonio.
He leads the Thunder in rebounding rate in the conference finals and ranks second in assist rate. , but I sure hope Fox sets up his teammates rather than looking for his own offense. Fox shooting should be a last resort if none of San Antonio's other offensive actions work. The Spurs have lob threats and 3-point shooters in their starting lineup.
Fox has dished out 6+ assists in nine of his 16 games in these playoffs, including three out of four in this series.
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