Bitcoin is experiencing significant volatility and approaching bear market territory after reaching a new all-time high. Factors contributing to the decline include trade jitters, a massive liquidation event, and waning bullish sentiment. Sentiment indicators show extreme fear among investors, with prices falling significantly from their recent peak.
Bitcoin is teetering at the edge of bear market territory just a few weeks after touching a fresh all-time high.It was a month of dashed hopes for the world's largest cryptocurrency, which saw dreams of "Uptober" fade as bitcoin suffered its first losing October in seven years.
"The sentiment index has fallen to 21, the lowest level since 9 April, indicating extreme fear. Last month, entering this territory triggered a rebound, but the market has already fallen below those levels," Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FXPro, said Tuesday morning.Bitcoin prices touched a record of $126,100 early in the month. On Tuesday, the token was trading below $103,000, crumbling 18% from its recent peak and trading at its lowest level since about June.Weeks of volatility have weighed on the market, stemming from trade jitters, a monumental liquidation event, waning bullishness for crypto treasury strategies, and a recalibration of rate-cut expectations after the last Fed meeting."It looks like pure exhaustion across the board," Haonan Li, the founder of blockchain firm Codex, said. "We're not in a bitcoin bear market, but most alts are effectively in one."Here's what has been dragging the market down in the last few weeks.On October 10, a fresh round of trade jitters sparked a historic unwinding of bitcoin long positions in a short span of time.Bitcoin investors liquidated $19 billion worth of positions across exchanges in under 24 hours, with some estimates suggesting the amount was closer to $30 billion. It was the largest bitcoin liquidation ever."It's almost irrelevant what news caused this," Jonathan Man, a portfolio manager at Bitwise, said at the time. "Yesterday reminded us how fragile our market still can be.The event was so extreme that market pros say investor sentiment has yet to recover weeks later, and some worry that heightened volatility could mean more liquidations ahead."A 10% move in either direction could trigger massive liquidations — roughly $11.39 billion in short positions if the price rises, or $7.55 billion in longs if it falls. This concentration of liquidations creates a powder keg effect and heightens the market's sensitivity to broader news," Farzam Ehsani, CEO of crypto trading site VALR, said."The cascading liquidations in offshore derivatives trading earlier in October set the tone," Codex's Li said, though he added that macro sentiment is now taking the reins of the market.Risk assets broadly are taking a hit this week from fresh uncertainty related to everything from tech stock valuations to potentially less support from the Fed.Bitcoin saw a fresh sell-off in the immediate aftermath of the October Fed meeting when Chairman Jerome Powell said that another rate cut in December is not a foregone conclusion. The lack of certainty of further central bank support for risk assets has weighed on bitcoin in the last week.And while the stock market has been buoyed by the AI trade, bitcoin doesn't have a similar catalyst, and the market is now looking for technical clues about when the sell-off might abate. Prior to Tuesday's sell-off in the stock market, observers say stocks were getting a boost from investors fleeing October's crypto carnage and rotating into equities."When the stock market and bitcoin started to decline, investors may have taken money from bitcoin to cover their position in the stock market, which then started to rebound," said Marcus Sturdivant, managing member of The ABC Squared.Overall, the market seems far less certain that some of the most bullish year-end forecasts will be achieved. Crypto bulls like Tom Lee and HSBC's Geoff Kendrick have bitcoin price targets around $200,000, meaning the crypto would need to embark on a rally of nearly 95% in less than two montsh."With trade headwinds on the horizon, less certainty about future rates, and uncertainty as to how the government shutdown will impact this month's economic numbers, buyers don't have enough data to underwrite market entry points at $120K anymore," said Guillermo Fernandes, founder of analytics firm Blockpliance.
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