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Bitcoin’s 20-week rolling correlation with the S&P 500 has turned positive, a signal that has historically preceded major BTC price declines.) erased much of its US-Iran war-driven gains this week, moving back in sync with the broader downtrend in risk assets, mainly Bitcoin’s positive flip in S&P 500 correlation has historically preceded average declines of around 50% since 2018.
As of Sunday, BTC/USD had fallen 5.65% week-to-date to about $68,700, while the S&P 500 closed the week down 1.90%.That renewed correlation is now signaling a greater risk of further downside in the Bitcoin market.The bearish warning for Bitcoin comes from a weekly correlation metric comparing BTC and the S&P 500 , the US equity benchmark index. As of Saturday, the 20-week rolling correlation between BTC and SPX was 0.13, up from its recent nadir of around -0.5.Since 2018, such sharp recoveries in BTC-SPX correlation have been preceding broader Bitcoin market declines, averaging at about -50%.A 50% drop from Bitcoin’s current price would imply a downside target of roughly $34,350 if the historical pattern repeats. Multiple analysts haveStrategy pause adds to cautious outlook Bitcoin’s renewed correlation with equities is also coinciding with a pause in corporate accumulation. Strategy , one of the largest Bitcoin holders, hasn’t bought BTC via the sales of its STRC preferred stock this week, according to data resourceStrategy’s STRC-fueled buying helped support Bitcoin’s rally during the US–Iran war. With no fresh purchases this week, BTC is more exposed to the potential sell-off in stocks. This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
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