BTC’s rising wedge points to a possible drop toward $70,000 as Strategy pauses buying and inflation cools Fed rate-cut hopes.
BTC’s rising wedge points to a possible drop toward $70,000 as Strategy pauses buying and inflation cools Fed rate-cut hopes. Bitcoin may head into next week’s US inflation report with less support than it had during the last two CPI releases, raising the risk of a pullback toward $70,000.
Cleveland Federal Reserve nowcast projects April headline CPI to rise to 3.56% year over year. Fed estimates 0.26% rise in headline inflationApril CPI at 3.56% year over year, up from 3.3% in March. It expects monthly CPI at 0.45%, down from 0.9%, while core CPI is projected at 2.56% year over year and 0.21% month over month, compared with 2.6% and 0.2% previously. The official April CPI report is due on May 12.
That keeps the inflation picture mixed. Headline CPI is expected to reaccelerate, even if the monthly pace slows and core inflation stays mostly stable. For risk assets, that is not an ideal setup. A firmer annual CPI reading can still reinforce the view that the Fed has little room to cut rates quickly, which tends to pressure speculative trades such as Bitcoin.
Nonetheless, Bitcoin has avoided deeper declines despite the recent hot CPI prints.showed headline inflation rising to 3.3% from 2.4% in February. BTC/USD daily chart vs. institutional buying market cap. Source: Capriole Investments, while its STRC preferred stock continues to trade below its $100 par value. When STRC trades below par, issuing new shares becomes less efficient, limiting Strategy’s ability to raise fresh capital for more Bitcoin buys.
That weakening support may leave Bitcoin more exposed to a different CPI reaction pattern this time. , analyst Killa said larger players may start de-risking around the inflation release, pointing to a similar pattern of caution around CPI events in 2025.
"Key level to hold is the 78.6K weekly open, if lost, 74–75K is the next downside target," he said, adding:BTC wedge hints at deeper decline toward $70,000A rising wedge is considered a bearish reversal setup that typically resolves when the price breaks below its lower trend line and falls by as much as the structure's maximum height. As of Sunday, BTC was rising toward the wedge's apex point, where its two trendlines converge, at around $84,000.
A breakdown from that level may result in a decline toward the wedge's measured downside target near $70,000. Conversely, a break above the apex point, which also coincides with the 200-day exponential moving average , may invalidate the bearish setup altogether.
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