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Bitcoin enters its most psychologically challenging cycle phase as BTC sellers and rising losses signal prolonged uncertainty and potentially more pain ahead.) failed to break the $72,000 resistance on Tuesday, as onchain data suggested that BTC was entering the most “challenging” phase of the cycle.
Rising supply in loss suggests the most “psychologically challenging” phase of the bear market is here.Bitcoin faces the most frustrating phase of the cycle “A combination of 3 key onchain metrics suggests that the market may be navigating one of the most psychologically challenging phases of the cycle,” MorenoDV_ said.These include the Bitcoin bull-bear market cycle indicator, a metric that tracks phases of investor sentiment in the BTC market, which shows a bear market consolidation phase following the aggressive drawdown from cycle highs.Bitcoin bull-bear market cycle indicator vs. apparent demand. Source: CryptoQuant The apparent demand further reinforces this picture. The chart above reveals that the spike in Bitcoin’s apparent demand in mid-February was short-lived, “with demand quickly slipping back into negative territory,” MorenoDV_ said. The lack of sustained buying pressure indicates that market participants remain cautious and unwilling to aggressively accumulate at current levels. Moreover, the Long-Term Holder SOPR is now below the key threshold of 1, a sign that even long-term investors are realizing losses. “Historically, this phase tends to emerge in the later stages of bear markets, when prolonged uncertainty begins to erode even the strongest conviction. ”Meanwhile, Bitcoin supply in loss is rising again, currently approaching the 40–45% range, up from 22% in mid-January. Historically, such levels appeared during deep corrective phases, as seen in 2015, 2019, and 2022, reflecting growing market stress and capitulation among sellers. The chart below shows that macro market bottoms are historically formed when supply in loss rises above 50%. “If historical patterns repeat, the current level may represent the early phase of a bear market rather than the final bottom.”Bitcoin has made several unsuccessful attempts to rise above $72,000, a level that has suppressed the price since early March.An accompanying chart showed $72,000 was the key level to watch on BTC’s four-hour chart. Breaching this level could attract new buyers if the price breaks out of its range.“However, if this resistance holds again, BTC could rotate back toward the $69K mid-range or even revisit the $66K support zone.”This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
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