A technical analysis of Bitcoin's price movements suggests a potential shift towards a bearish trend, with the possibility of a price drop to the $70,000 range before a potential rally. The analysis considers Elliott Wave patterns, support levels, and historical data to forecast future price movements, including the potential for significant gains in the coming years. The author adjusts warning levels and discusses a fake breakout that invalidates a previous bullish outlook.
That should then conclude a larger irregular expanded flat, red W-iv, comprising green W-a, -b, and -c, which in turn form a 3-3-5 pattern right around the 50% retracement of the entire red W-iii. From there, red W-v can start at least to $164K, satisfying item 1) of the list above 2025 was a bad year for Bitcoin , as it ended lower.
However, despite limited data, BTC has never closed lower for two consecutive years. Since 2024 was a green year, we should expect 2026 through possibly 2028 to be green., we can’t rule out a lower low near the upper end of long-term support this year before Bitcoin really takes off.wave]. The Bulls’ warning levels are therefore now adjusted to 91483, 90327, 88410, 86704, and 84424. Each successive break below these levels increases the probability by 20% that BTC will reach the low to mid $70Ks before attempting another rally. These observations are important because they set the framework for what is happening now and what is likely to happen. Fast forward to today, BTC broke out above the $94,617 level on January 13, but it held above it for only four days, and it is now at ~$88,000. It was a fake breakout, invalidating the possible impulse path we were tracking. Meanwhile, the 3warning level has been broken, giving it a 60% chance that the uptrend is over. Hence, we have switched our alternative, bearish Elliott Wave Principle count to the primary expectation. See Figure 1 below.The false breakout strongly suggests the January 14 high at $97,943 was the top of the orange Wave-c of the gray W-iv. In this case, the W-c was about the same length as the same-degree, orange, W-a that ended at $94617: 13519 vs 14055. Classic. Typically, the 3rd wave extends to the 138.2-161.8% extension of the 1st wave, measured from the 2nd wave. On November 21, the low at $80,562 was almost the 1.618x extension of the gray W-i low on October 17, measured from the gray W-ii high on October 27 at $79,654. After W-iii, W-iv and W-v will follow. The former tends to target the 76.4-100% extension zone, whereas the latter then targets the 176.4-200.0% extension zone. The January 14 gray W-iv high was almost at the 76.4% level: $97,943 vs. $99,068. Thus far, so good: Bitcoin’s price action appears to follow an impulse pattern to the downside. Additionally, W-ii was a zigzag, and W-iv was an expanded flat, satisfying the rule of alternation. As such, contingent on Bitcoin holding below the January 14 high at $97,943, we expect it to reach the 176.4-200.0% Fibonacci-extension zone at $76335-70970 for the gray W-v,That should then conclude a larger irregular expanded flat, red W-iv, comprising green W-a, -b, and -c, which in turn form a 3-3-5 pattern right around the 50% retracement of the entire red W-iii. From there, red W-v can start at least to $164K, satisfying item 1) of the list above.Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks. Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes.and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website. It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
Bitcoin Price Analysis Elliott Wave Market Trends Technical Analysis
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