Here's what Wall Street's top firms are telling financial advisors about how to position client portfolios:
In The U.K.’s Idyllic Coastal Area Of Cornwall, Coronavirus Draws Battle Lines Between Tourists And LocalsLisa Shalett was already cautious about the market in the fall of 2019. Shalett, the chief investment officer for wealth management at Morgan Stanley, says her firm believed the S&P 500 was “frothy” in October when it first hit 3000 points. The index would continue to rise to a high of over 3380 on Feb.19 before plummeting to lower than 2250 points in just over a month.
Looking ahead to when the virus begins to abate and the markets respond accordingly, Shalett expects to see China come out of 2020 “stronger than ever, from a leadership perspective, from a momentum in their economy perspective and from the perspective of them being a center of economic strength.” Chris Hyzy, who serves as CIO for Merrill Lynch and Bank of America Private Bank, and his colleagues are tracking five signs to determine a market bottom:For a return to the normalcy of the inverse relationship between stocks and bondsFor signs the U.S. dollar is topping out and eventually weakening to help non-U.S. markets“When those components are met, you typically go through a bottoming process,” Hyzy said. “We're not looking to time the markets.
Circling back to the importance of not chasing one-for-one gains, he said that when a recovery starts to appear amidst good news on the virus front, advisors and firms need to be cautious about jumping in without some defensive positions in place. He also rejects the notion that there will be a “v-shaped” recovery, expecting more of a “square root,” - a drop to the bottom followed by a move up into a plateau as the economy recovers slowly.
He says a financial advisors’ job has become more about managing emotions as they try to prevent clients from panic selling.
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