Jon Wilner's Pac-12 Hotline is brought to KSL.com through a partnership with the Bay Area News Group.Jon Wilner has been covering college sports for decades and is an AP Top 25 football and basketball voter as well as a Heisman Trophy voter.
The Big 12 leaned into parity as the dominant narrative of its post-realignment form and a means of distinguishing itself from top-heavy peers in the Power Four conferences.
That theme played out to perfection in 2024, when the team picked last finished first and the team picked first finished 13th . But 2025 suggested a shifting landscape as Texas Tech, the preseason favorite with a high-priced roster, blasted its way to the Big 12 title. Which dynamic will materialize in Year 3?
A return to unpredictability might prove pleasing to fans and produce a slew of unforgettable Saturdays, but it's not the best course for placing an at-large team in the College Football Playoff. Through two years of the 12-team CFP, the Big 12 stands as the only power conference without an at-large participant — or, for that matter, without a CFP victory. Three months of eat-your-own competition this fall isn't the most effective means to that end.
The conference needs a hierarchy to emerge, something akin to the Big Ten's clearly defined top tier of Indiana, Ohio State and Oregon. That seemed more likely before Texas Tech quarterback Brendan Sorsby became the subject of an NCAA investigation for gambling last month. If he doesn't return, the team widely considered the preseason favorite morphs into a mere contender and the race widens at the top. Which, if we're being honest, is exactly what the Big 12 doesn't need.
The following projections, updated from January, will be revised again at the close of training camp.1. BYULast year: 12-2/8-1Comment: We slotted the Cougars on top in our February forecast, and the gap has only widened in the past three months. No team has a better combination of quarterback , tailback and offensive line. Sure, there are questions at receiver, but championships are won with running games and physical fronts — and, we should add, with stout defenses.
BYU has all three. Admittedly, the loss of defensive coordinator Jay Hill to Michigan will cut deep in Provo, but the situation would be exponentially worse if the Cougars didn't have veterans on every level. . Kalani Sitake's most complete team will have the added benefit of playing all its toughest games at home.
2. HoustonLast year: 10-3/6-3Comment: Willie Fritz's crew won't catch anyone by surprise after the break
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