President Joe Biden is preparing to host the ruling leader of Qatar at the White House as the West faces the prospect of a European energy crunch if Russia invades Ukraine.
Qatar is already producing at full capacity with much of its supply under contract to Asia. Even if some Pacific allies of the U.S. — including India, Japan and South Korea — are persuaded to divert some LNG orders it has contracted to Europe, it will only have a small impact in softening the blow, according to energy analysts.
Natural gas future prices surged last week amid growing market fears a potential conflict could disrupt Russian exports transiting through Ukraine to Europe. The crunch has been worsened by Russia, which typically supplies about 40% of Europe's natural gas supply, reducing its exports by about 25% in the fourth quarter of 2021 compared with the same period in 2020 despite high worldwide prices.
Russia has repeatedly said it has no intention of invading Ukraine even as the Biden administration has warned that military action could be “imminent.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has dismissed concerns that Russia could cut off European gas supplies as “fake hysteria.” “Many countries have stepped up to help the evacuation and relocation efforts in Afghanistan, but no country has done more than Qatar,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said during a September visit to Doha. Blinken spoke last week with Qatari Foreign Affairs Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani about the Russian troop buildup, according to the State Department.
The White House is anticipating that al Thani may request in his conversations with administration officials that Biden, a Democrat, approve a $500 million sale of M-9 Reaper drones. The request has been languishing since 2020, when Trump was still in office. Biden and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in a joint statement Friday said that they were working to ensure “sufficient, and timely supply of natural gas to the EU from diverse sources across the globe to avoid supply shocks" as they build contingency plans.
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